Grossbritannien hat Ende September sein letztes Kohlekraftwerk vom Netz genommen. Das Ende der Kohleverstromung wurde weitherum bejubelt. Nicht beachtet wurde allerdings, dass das Land auf immer mehr Stromimporte angewiesen ist. Denn beim zunehmenden Anteil an Windstrom müssen die Flauten irgendwie überbrückt werden. Alex Reichmuth hat im Nebelspalter aufgezeigt, wie gefährlich die Auslandabhängigkeit für Grossbritannien ist (https://www.nebelspalter.ch/themen/2024/10/grossbritannien-ist-immer-mehr-auf-stromimporte-angewiesen).
Nach dem Kohleausstieg
Grossbritannien ist immer mehr auf Stromimporte angewiesenDie Fakten: Ende September ging in Grossbritannien das letzte Kohlekraftwerk vom Netz. Der Kohleausstieg wird als Durchbruch im Kampf gegen den Klimawandel gefeiert. Weitgehend übersehen wird dabei, dass die Stromversorgung des Landes immer mehr von Lieferungen aus dem Ausland abhängt.
Warum das wichtig ist: Grossbritannien ist das erste grosse Industrieland, das ohne Kohleverstromung auskommt. Schon seit letztem Jahr ist die Windkraft der wichtigste Stromlieferant. Doch die Versorgung des Landes würde wohl zusammenbrechen, wenn nicht regelmässig andere Länder einspringen würden – in zunehmendem Mass.
Das Zitat: «Der britische Kohleausstieg hat eine grosse Symbolkraft.» (NZZ, siehe hier).
Den ganzen Artikel gibt es im Nebelspalter (https://www.nebelspalter.ch/themen/2024/10/grossbritannien-ist-immer-mehr-auf-stromimporte-angewiesen). Der Text kann nach 20 Sekunden Werbung freigeschaltet werden.
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Der Schweizer Wirtschaftsverband Economiesuisse trägt den Beschluss der Regierung mit, das Verbot für neue Atomkraftwerke zu streichen. Vor sieben Jahren bei der Volksabstimmung zu diesem Punkt war der Verband noch anderer Meinung. Alex Reichmuth hat den verantwortlichen Alexander Keberle nach den Gründen für die Kehrtwende gefragt. Interview im Nebelspalter (https://www.nebelspalter.ch/themen/2024/10/alexander-keberle-die-schweiz-hat-die-stromprobleme-unterschaetzt).
Economiesuisse zur Atomfrage
Alexander Keberle: «Die Schweiz hat die Stromprobleme unterschätzt»Der Wirtschaftsdachverband Economiesuisse stellt sich hinter den Beschluss des Bundesrats, das Verbot für den Bau neue Kernkraftwerke zu streichen. Was sind die Gründe für diesen Entscheid – und braucht die Schweiz nun wirklich neue AKW? Der «Nebelspalter» hat mit Geschäftsleitungsmitglied und Energieexperte Alexander Keberle gesprochen.
Die wichtigsten Aussagen von Alexander Keberle:
- «Die Schweiz wird ihre Stromproduktion bis 2050 mehr als verdoppeln müssen. Darum können wir uns Denkverbote und Technologieverbote nicht mehr leisten.»
- «Weltweit sind 170 Atomkraftwerke in Bau oder Planung – von China über Europa bis zu den USA. Es wäre vermessen zu sagen, all diese Länder seien volkswirtschaftlich auf den Kopf gefallen.»
- «Falls es sich herausstellt, dass die Schweiz neue AKW braucht, ist jetzt der ideale Zeitpunkt, um die Atomdiskussion zu führen.»
Das ganze Interview gibt es im Nebelspalter (https://www.nebelspalter.ch/themen/2024/10/alexander-keberle-die-schweiz-hat-die-stromprobleme-unterschaetzt) zu lesen. Der Beitrag kann nach 20 Sekunden Werbung freigeschaltet werden.
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Offshore wind whale deaths indicated by statistical analysis
Systematic statistical analysis indicates that offshore wind development has likely been killing lots of whales since it began around 2016. This long-standing conjecture that wind kills whales may be confirmed.
Call it forensic statistical epidemiology. The epidemic is the huge number of Northwest Atlantic whale deaths that were first officially observed by NOAA in 2016-17, and that continued to this day. It is forensic because killing whales can be highly illegal.
This math feat was performed by Apostolos Gerasoulis, a Rutgers professor emeritus of computer science. This is a computer math problem, not a biological one, so he is exceptionally qualified. See https://www.cs.rutgers.edu/people/professors/details/gerasoulis-apostolos
Professor Gerasoulis has confirmed with profound statistical evidence the widespread conjecture that offshore wind sonar surveys have been killing whales. There is now no reasonable doubt that the extensive sonar harassment authorized by NOAA since 2016 has caused the massive increase in whale deaths that NOAA first flagged in 2016-17.
Here is a lengthy article that provides some of that compelling evidence:
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Scientists create AI model that rivals top methods for weather and climate forecasts
A machine learning model capable of both accurate weather predictions and climate simulations was published in Nature this week. The model, named NeuralGCM, outperforms some existing weather and climate prediction models and has the potential to make large savings in computational power over conventional models.
General circulation models (GCMs), representing physical processes of the atmosphere, ocean and land, are the basis for weather and climate predictions. Reducing the uncertainty around long-term forecasting and estimating extreme weather events are key to helping understand climate mitigation and adaptation.
Machine learning models have been suggested as an alternative approach to weather prediction with the benefit of reduced computational costs, but they often do not perform as well as GCMs when it comes to long-term forecasting.
Stephan Hoyer and colleagues designed NeuralGCM, a model that combines machine learning and physics-based methods, which can make short- and medium-range weather forecasts as well as simulate climate over a number of decades.
The model can compete with the accuracy of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, one of the best conventional physics-based weather models) predictions for 1- to 15-day forecasts. For forecasts up to 10 days in advance, NeuralGCM competes with and sometimes exceeds the accuracy of existing machine learning approaches.
NeuralGCM produces climate simulations at the same level of accuracy as the best machine learning and physics-based methods. When the authors included sea surface temperatures in 40-year climate predictions using NeuralGCM, they found that the outcomes the model produced mapped with the global warming trends seen in data from the ECMWF.
NeuralGCM also outperformed pre-existing climate models in predicting cyclones and their trajectories. Together, these findings suggest that machine learning is a viable approach for improving GCMs, the authors conclude.
Paper: Dmitrii Kochkov et al, Neural general circulation models for weather and climate, Nature (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41586-024-07744-y
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Scientists say sun’s influence penetrates into deep Earth
For years, scientists believed that changes in the Earth’s interior, such as volcanic eruptions and tectonic plate collisions, primarily affected the surface environment. Events such as the mass extinction around 66 million years ago and the transitions between icehouse and greenhouse climates were thought to be driven mainly by these deep Earth processes. However, a new study published in Nature Communications has revealed a surprising new aspect: solar radiation can also affect the Earth’s deep interior.
Solar radiation varies with latitude, creating temperature gradients on the sea surface that affect the distribution of marine life. These carbon-rich organisms are transported into the Earth’s interior by the subduction of oceanic plates. Researchers from the Institute of Geology and Geophysics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences have discovered that this process significantly affects the redox state of arc magma.
The „redox“ state of arc magma refers to the balance between reducing (losing oxygen or gaining electrons) and oxidizing (gaining oxygen or losing electrons) conditions within magma formed in volcanic arcs. Marine organisms serve as organic carbon and act as a major reducer for the solid Earth. Consequently, the redox state of arc magma can reflect how the sun’s influence penetrates deep into the Earth.
Thousands of magma samples have been gathered to reveal the global redox state variations which are critical for targeting metal ores such as copper, tin and lithium, key elements for renewable energy technologies. These samples have provided remarkable insights into the interactions between the surface climate and deep Earth processes.
Vanadium and scandium levels of arc magma served as key indicators in the geochemical models. By compiling global geochemical data from Cenozoic arc magma and olivine-hosted melt inclusions, the researchers found a latitude-dependent redox distribution of arc magma with less oxidized magma in lower latitudes compared to those in higher latitudes.
„Previous studies mainly compared samples from the same longitudinal regions, such as the United States in the northern hemisphere and Mexico in the tropical zone, without finding significant differences. However, our samples from different latitudes showed varying redox responses, which piqued our curiosity. Trying to explain these differences led us to discover this unexpected pattern,“ said Wan Bo, a geologist and co-author of the study.
„This unexpected pattern suggests that the surface climate has a direct influence on the deep Earth. It also suggests that the Earth’s surface environment and climate have a vital influence on the deep Earth,“ said WAN.
So how does the sun work on the interior of the Earth?
Further evidence came from seafloor studies, showing more reduced carbon deposits at lower latitudes. This carbon interacts with sulfur to form sulfide, which is then transported into the mantle, contributing to the observed redox pattern.
„The observed pattern suggests a strong link between the surface environment and the redox state of the deep Earth, providing new directions for exploring the resources and environmental impacts of subduction systems at different latitudes,“ said Hu Fangyang, corresponding author of the study.
While the results are compelling, the researchers acknowledge the need for more extensive data from global marine and subducted sediments. The study opens new avenues for scientific exploration.
Paper: Fangyang Hu et al, Latitude-dependent oxygen fugacity in arc magmas, Nature Communications (2024). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-024-50337-6